Does China’s Economic Rise Matter?


This paper is to predict the direction of the foreign policy of the new leadership of China highlighting the change of international circumstance due to its economic rise. To summarize the result of analyses, China is not necessarily expected to be a large threat to existing international order or major economies for the next 5 to 10 years, even if its economy grows at a pace of the official target. Although the country is expected to increase its voice in international economic negotiations with the economic rise and develop aggressive diplomacy to secure food, resources, and energy, the new leadership of China will basically pursue a cooperative approach in its foreign policy. However, the implications of such analysis result require consideration on the difference between the U.S. and EU, and Japan. The foreign policy of the new leadership of China on the U.S. and EU is cooperative, but as to the foreign policy on Japan, the prospect doesn't allow much room for optimism.