Volume 2(2013)

PAGE 7/15
Fig.4 Contribution share to the growth of GDP (China)

Sources) China Statistical Year Book 2011

Conventional international rules are established mainly by the U.S. and EU as suggested by their large market size and low economic vulnerability3.

However, from the viewpoint of the population, GDP, and foreign trade size, “strong three era” of China, the U.S., and EU is coming in several years. Therefore, in negotiations of international economic rules, influence power of China is thought to become unignorable in near future (refer to Formula ii).

Meanwhile, however, as the Chinese economy has high foreign trade dependence and the industrial structure likely to be affected by international transactions, in respect of external economic vulnerability, China is weaker than the U.S. or EU (refer to Formula iii). Therefore, influence power of China in the establishment and change of international rules is thought to be still smaller than that of the U.S. or EU (refer to Formula iv).

Hence, China does not seem to have the power of influence to push through its own intent when its interests are against those of the U.S. and EU. It is predicted rather that, respecting existing international economic rules established mainly by the U.S. and EU, within such extent China will aggressively make claims to maximize their benefits.

P = ƒ (S, V) = S – V
SChina ≒ SUS ≒ SEU --- ii
VChina > VUS ≒ VEU --- iii
∴ PChina < PUS ≒ PEU ---iv

3. David. Drezner studied 13 rule making negotiations regarding internet, international finance, genetic modification, and intellectual property, and pointed out that in 12 cases out of the 13 cases the U.S. and EU exercised influence in establishing the rules (D. W. Drezner, All Politics Is Global, Princeton University Press, 2007).