Volume 2(2013)

PAGE 8/15
Move to secure food, resources, and energy

Secondly, the changes in supply and demand of food, resources, and energy of China and the world are discussed. If China having a population of 1.3 billion continues the high economic growth, the international supply and demand of food, resources, and energy is thought to be subject to influence.

Then, what is the future trend of supply and demand of food, resources, and energy in China itself? Where will China procure the food, resources, and energy not satisfied by its domestic supply from? Can that be a threat to Japan and the U.S. in international transactions of food, resources, and energy?

For example, as to wheat, China is expected to shift from a net exporting country to a net importing country, but the domestic supply-demand gap is slight (refer to Table 4). Also in the world, it is unlikely that the supply and demand get stringent because in the U.S. and Europe the increase of production is expected to surpass the increase of consumption and thus net export will increase.

As for corn, China is already a net importing country and considered to increase the import quantity continuously (refer to Table 5). Also in the EU, the increase of consumption is expected to surpass the increase of production and import from outside the region will expand. In the U.S., also corn consumption is expected to increase due to bio-ethanol production.

However, globally, it is unlikely that the supply and demand of corn get stringent as of 2020, if the weather is fine, because in the U.S. and Latin America the increase of production is expected to surpass the increase of consumption.

Also as for soybean, the import quantity of China expected to increase (refer to Table 6). The import of soybean of the EU from outside the region is expected to increase as well as China.

On the other hand, globally, the increase of supply by major soybean exporting countries such as the U.S. and Argentina can be expected. Hence, also as for soybean, it is unlikely that the supply and demand in the world get stringent as of 2020, if the weather is fine.

As for beef, the consumption in China is expected to expand, and China is thought to shift to a net importing country by 2020 (refer to Table 7). However, in the U.S., Europe, and Latin America the increase of production exceeding consumption and the increase of net export are expected.

Table 3 Supply and demand of wheat

Unit Million tons
Sources : Policy Research Institute Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (2011)