Volume 2(2013)

PAGE 13/15

However, the main energy resource of China is surely the coal mined domestically. In addition, as China is rapidly expanding nuclear power generation, it is unlikely that the supply and demand of fuel resources such as oil in the world get stringent or these prices rise sharply due to China.


In this paper, the direction of the foreign policy of the new leadership of China has been discussed from the following two viewpoints: (1) change in influence power of China in international economic negotiations, and (2) the move of China to secure food, resources and energy.

To summarize the result of the analysis, China is not necessarily expected to be a large threat to existing international order or major economic countries for the next 5 to 10 years, while the country is expected to increase its voice in international economic negotiations with the economic rise and develop aggressive diplomacy to secure food, resources, and energy. The new leadership of China will basically pursue a cooperative approach in its foreign policy.

Originally, pursuing a cooperative approach especially to the U.S. has been the basic policy since Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin ex-General Secretaries era. Xi Jinping leadership that has just got the leadership transfer from Hu Jintao ex-leadership is probably hard to take actions to convert the policies of the ex-leadership in either domestic or foreign affairs because conversion of existing policies can increase the chances for groups aiming to accuse the leadership.

Actually, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hong Lei announced at a press conference, asked about the foreign policy of the new leadership, that China maintains the cooperative foreign policy demonstrated by Hu Jintao also under the new leadership, being quoted as saying “The report delivered by Comrade Hu Jintao at the opening ceremony of the 18th National Congress wholly reveals the standpoint on international circumstance and foreign policy of China5.”

Therefore, the result of the analysis in this paper that the foreign policy of the new leadership of China is basically cooperative is thought to be supported also by such domestic political situation.

However, the implications of such analysis result require consideration on the difference between the U.S. and EU, and Japan.

Japan already has been surpassed by China in GDP size, and if China grows about 7% per annum in economy for the next 10 years, the difference surely increases further. Even if the growth rate of China remains at around 5%, as some experts allege, the difference in economy size between China and Japan increases more and more. On the other hand, the situation where China further surpasses the U.S. or EU is unlikely to appear in the 2020s at least in GDP size on an exchange basis, even if China maintains its rapid economic growth over the 2010s.

That is to say, Japan will be largely surpassed in just a few years by China, the U.S., and EU in market size, and thus it is feared that its influence power in international economic negotiations can decrease less and less.

Furthermore, the expansion of China’s demand for food, resources, and energy also has different impacts on the U.S. and EU, and Japan.

Fortunately, as the major food exporting countries have room to expand production, it is unlikely that the supply and demand of food in the world get stringent for the next 5 to 10 years. However, from the world's perspective, the country where the expansion of food consumption is expected is not only China. Food demand is expected to expand also in developing and emerging countries such as India and Eastern European countries, associated with rising income levels, etc. In addition, it is also expected that the demand of agricultural products expands as the raw materials of biofuels. In the result, worldwide, food prices are thought to rise continuously.

5. Spokesperson Hong Lei's regular press conference, Nov.15, 2012: downloaded from the website of Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China (http://www.mfa.gov.cn/chn/gxh/tyb/fyrbt/jzhsl/t989479.htm) on Nov.30, 2012